San Mateo County Real Estate Market: October 2026 Overview

San Mateo County Real Estate Market: October 2026 Overview

I'm Zack Wooster, a Peninsula realtor and property manager, and here's what I'm seeing in the San Mateo County and San Francisco real estate markets this October. The Peninsula market is still moving, and the luxury segment is moving fastest.

In San Carlos, Belmont, Redwood City, Menlo Park, Palo Alto, and Los Altos, well-priced single-family homes continue to sell quickly, often above asking. Condos and townhomes are playing by different rules (more on that below). They take longer to sell, close nearer to list price, and often face HOA-related loan contingencies.

Peninsula Luxury Home Market ($4M+)

The luxury market is defined as the top tier of properties in a given area. In San Mateo County, that is roughly $4 million and above, and this segment is following its own rules. More buyers have meaningful liquidity from the AI economy, whether through IPO gains, secondary-share sales, tender offers, or growing equity wealth. Many are paying cash, which makes them less sensitive to rate changes and ready to move fast when the right home appears.

In Palo Alto, Menlo Park, and Los Altos, more than 70% of listed homes have sold, with a median time on market of roughly 8 to 9 days. About one in three sales were all-cash. In recent weeks, several listings accepted offers more than $1M over list, with as many as 8 to 14 offers in Los Altos, Palo Alto, and even Redwood City. (Reach out to me to hear about that one.)

If you own a well-located, well-positioned luxury home, there is a very real opportunity right now.

City Highlights

• San Carlos: Less than one month of supply in September.
• Palo Alto: Median of 8 days on market, averaging 109% of list price.
• Redwood City: More inventory than neighboring communities, but not a slow market. Homes sold in a median of 12 days at 104% of list price.
• Menlo Park & Los Altos: Still very limited supply, with the right homes drawing buyers quickly.

Mortgage Rates and the Bay Area Housing Market

Freddie Mac's most recent weekly survey (released October 8) put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40%. As of October 13, daily lender pricing remained in the mid-7% range. That matters for payment-sensitive buyers, particularly in the middle of the market, but far less for cash buyers and those with substantial equity.

Condos & Townhomes: How HOA Dues Are Affecting Prices

Condo prices in San Mateo County have remained flat to slightly lower since 2018, with virtually no nominal growth over the past 7 to 8 years. Meanwhile, HOA dues have in many cases roughly doubled, driven by rising insurance premiums and market volatility.

Buyers at this price point are sensitive to both higher interest rates and higher HOA fees. They look at total monthly cost, not just the price, so rising dues are putting downward pressure on list prices and limiting what many buyers can qualify for. Lenders are also scrutinizing reserves, insurance coverage, special assessments, and litigation, and a poorly managed HOA can derail even the most buttoned-up listing.

Even very well-presented condos are sitting. In October 2026, condos in San Mateo County averaged 44 days on market, with a median of 22 days. That gap means many listings sit well beyond the typical sale.

If you're thinking of selling a condo, know your HOA's financial health before you list. Get the budget, reserve study, and insurance details in order, and price with the full cost of ownership in mind. If you're buying, review the HOA documents carefully. Dues, reserves, and insurance can matter as much as the purchase price.

Rent vs. Sell: Why Leasing Your Bay Area Property May Be Smarter

As a boutique real estate sales and property management firm, our philosophy is to buy and hold property and not sell unless you have to. We provide full-service property management to roughly 250 landlords in San Mateo and San Francisco counties, and we often recommend that owners evaluate leasing their condos rather than selling in this market.

On the fence? We can list your property for rent and for sale simultaneously. Landlords enjoy benefits most owners don't realize, and I'm happy to walk you through them.

Advice for Home Sellers in a Changing Market

Sellers should be realistic. The best homes are still selling, but homes that need work, have a challenging location, or are priced as though buyers have no alternatives will need a stronger strategy. Your list price is an invitation and a marketing strategy. Don't just throw your home on the market. Come prepared with a plan built for today's buyers.

Work With Zack Wooster: Your Peninsula Realtor & Property Manager

Whether you're buying, selling, or considering leasing your property, I'd love to help. We have a great reputation, and in all our years of managing properties we've had only one eviction. We help landlords lease their properties quickly, finding a tenant in about two weeks on average from the day we hit the market.

We don't want to be the biggest. We want to be the best, and we only work with the best types of clients. If you're considering leasing property in the Bay Area, we'd love to talk.

Reach out to Zack Wooster today for a complimentary rental evaluation or sales evaluation.